State moves up primary in political power play

SACRAMENTO — The stage is set for what could be a de facto national primary day with Gov. Schwarzenegger signing a bill Thursday that moves up California's presidential primary to Feb. 5.

As many as two dozen states could end up holding their caucuses and primaries Feb. 5, spurred in great part by the action of the nation's most populous state. But the impact also is already being felt within California, where voters have been wooed by a series of visits by all the major candidates.

"Just by talking about moving the presidential primary has already elevated California's status," Schwarzenegger said, just before signing the bill. "Moving up the presidential pri-mary from June to February means California will have the influence it deserves in choosing America's next presidential candidates."

California immediately becomes the giant among states that have set their primaries or caucuses for Feb. 5, overshadowing Alabama, Arkansas, Delaware, Missouri and Utah. New Mexico and Idaho Democrats have set their presidential caucuses for Feb. 5, and the West Virginia GOP plans to hold its state convention, which selects candidates, on that date.

But other large-population states, including Florida, Illinois, Michigan and New Jersey are among the 15 other states considering moving their contests to Feb. 5. If that happens, candidates would have to spend time and money there, also, possibly diminishing California's impact on picking the nominees.

"I just don't think it's all that it's made out to be," said Republican strategist Ken Khachigian, a veteran of eight presidential campaigns. "It won't have the effect that everybody wants."

Still, the alternative would be to sit on the sidelines in June, watching idly as the rest of the nation chooses the next nominees, said Bill Carrick, a Democratic strategist and veteran of presidential campaigns.

California's assets are in its delegates: 440 in the winner-take-all system for Democrats. That's 10 percent of the 4,366 delegates. Republicans award their 173 delegates to winners of each congressional district.

"With so many delegates," said Jack Pitney, a political science professor at Claremont McKenna College, "no candidate will be able to afford to ignore this state."

Still, the drawbacks to the rush to the front are many, political observers say: Candidates won't be shaking too many hands; the demise of retail politics could be accelerated even more quickly, given the compacted primary season — even in the traditional hands-on states such as New Hampshire and Iowa. Also, California's expensive media market will limit even the top tier candidates' ability to blanket the state with ads.

The early rush to the front, Khachigian said, could lend even more importance to the first four primaries and caucuses in New Hampshire, Iowa, Nevada and South Carolina, all to be held in January.

"They'll work even harder in the first four states," he said.

"So, this early primary may have the opposite effect of taking the focus away from California by pulling out all the stops" before Feb. 5.

Many Republicans opposed moving up the primary, saying it would cost counties too much money to hold an extra election.

As he signed the bill, Schwarz-enegger pledged to reimburse counties for the cost, which officials estimate at $60 million to $90 million.

California will continue to hold its regular primary for state officeholders in June.

*VOCABULARY:

DE FACTO - means that it may be the unoffical date that all states decide to hold their primaries

CAUCUS - a meeting of party leaders to select candidates

DELEGATES - the delegates from a state go back to the party and vote for which candidate their state wanted (kind of like the electoral college)

A PRIMARY is an election where ONLY members from a certain political party get together and vote to decide which candidate they will support.

*QUESTIONS FOR DISCUSSION

Do you think that California will get more attention from candidates now that their election is February 5th?

Do candidates campaign in your state? Discuss what is is like to live in a state that candidates feel is high priority, a state that candidates feel is low priority.

Can you think of any solutions to the problem that makes certain states more important in choosing candidates than others?